Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
